Two years into a military deadlock along the actual control line in Ladakh, Beijing has reached New Delhi to revive bilateral dialogue and set the stage for KTT BRICS (Russia-Russia-India-China-South Africa) in China later this year.
Beijing has proposed a series of events to start a dialogue, starting with the possibility of high-level visits from both parties.
To start, Beijing has submitted a visit by members of the Chinese State Council and Foreign Minister Wang Yi to India earlier this month. This was followed by reciprocal visits by the Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar. The Chinese side has also proposed a series of high-level visits by top politbiro members and major officials in the President XI Jinping regime.
The Chinese have also proposed ‘Indian-Chinese civilization dialogue’ which will be held in both countries. They have also proposed India-China trade and investment work forum and Indian-China film forum.
But the main and clear purpose of China is to hold Prime Minister Narendra Modi for direct strics summit which will be attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin too. China, who also holds a chair for the Trilateral Ric (Russian-India-China) this year, can also hold the peak of the leader on the sidelines of the BRICS summit.
But on the ground, from the perspective of New Delhi, it’s easier to say than done. The deadlock in East Ladakh began on May 5, 2020 after clashes of violence in the Lake Pangong area and both parties gradually increased their placement by rushing for tens of thousands of soldiers and heavy weapons.
As a result of a series of military and diplomatic talks, both parties completed the release process in the north and South Bank of Pangong Tso in February 2021, and in the gorry territory in August. While the troops still release in two other regions, the wider de-escalation is not near the horizon. The deadlock remained unresolved with around 50,000 soldiers collected on both sides of the LAC.
The potential window of the opportunity to open the deadlock is: the 14th Brics Summit in 2022 will be held by China. Just as the Doklam Border Stand-off was completed a few days before the summit in September 2017 in Xiamen, the official felt there was a lever to be used.
Time to start the basis for the proposed brick summit is also significant – Russia faces global opprobrium for its war in Ukraine. One member of BRICS, Russia will be part of the Summit, and standing with Russian leaders will be considered an endorsement.
From Delhi calculus, Beijing’s outreach is a chance because two years of tense bonds have caused a decrease in profits carried out in the past three decades. While India always states that the border situation has affected bilateral bonds, China insists that border disputes must be handled properly and a greater picture of bilateral bonds must be remembered